简单的讲, 那是PROGRAMNIG TRADING, 分析师早都设好的, CAN'T BEAT.
SP 历史新高1552, 1/2=776, 2002 年熊市结束的底点.
775 X 138.2% (FIBO) = 1072, 2004年的低点(实际是1060)
775 X 150% (FIBO) =1163, 2005 年调整低点的结束.
1552 X 85.4% (FIBO) = 1326, 2006 年的高点, 接着大跌.
1163 +55 (FIBO) =1219, 2006 年的低点, 接着大涨.
1326-1219 = 107
1326+107=1433 2006 年的高点
1060 X 138.2% (FIBO) =1465, 今年的最高点 (实际是1461).
在看这些数值之间的关系.
这次大跌高低点的关系:
1461(约)=(1433- 1219 )x 1.125 ((五边行 MM 线) + 1219
1461-1219= 242, 242 X 2/5 (五边行 MM 线) =96, 1461-96=1364, 这次大跌的低点.
未来目标:
向上
1486=(1433-1219)X 1.25 +1219
1485=1461与1364 重要关系
1510= 1219,1326,1364 重要关系 它是调整的MM 线,99%调整
1552 绝对会冲破.
1708 终点站.
向下
1326 绝非支持.
1315 重大关系, 你自己研究
1265 熊市的最后冲刺, 如果破, 看 1186. 1051 应是熊市的终点.
这些都可以从上面数字找到关系.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Jesse Livermore
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Lauriston_Livermore
http://www.jesse-livermore.com/
I have his two famous books:
REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR
HOW TO TRADE IN STOCKS
You can find several his book in pdf files here.
http://www.jesse-livermore.com/
I have his two famous books:
REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR
HOW TO TRADE IN STOCKS
You can find several his book in pdf files here.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
About Brokers (ZZ)
12/28/2006更新内容：加了Zecco和网友对ETrade的评论，补充了一些关于Fidelity的内容。
我是一个非常活跃的trader：交易费每月达3000美元已上, 从不炒OTC股，很少炒期权和指数。我用过CyberTrader, InteractiveBrokers, MBTrading, Scottrade, RushTrade, Ameritrade, Fidelity, TD Waterhouse（现已跟Ameritrade合并）, BrownCo（现在是E*Trade的一部份），Zecco.
CyberTrader Pro: 直接交易(direct access trading)，快。我现在的最爱，每股的交易费是0.006美元（2000股以内，2000股以外是0.003美元）。最适合活跃的炒股手。（每月买卖的股数低于40000股要另交费$249/月）。有全部AH(4pm-8pm)，pre-market(7am-9:30am) 支持。 公司的customer services很不错。CyberTrader Pro的servers极少down（半年里down过一小时）。
InteractiveBrokers: 直接交易，快，每股的交易费是0.005美元，价钱低，不仅可交易全世界的各种证卷，而且有可做自动交易的Java/C++ API。我很喜欢IB的Java API。InteractiveBrokers适用美国，加拿大和中国居民。公司的customer services和软件的用户界面不如CyberTrader Pro（据说是IB的电话接线员不懂行）。
MBTrading:直接交易，快，交易费($10/$10 或者$0.01/share (first 500 shares), $0.005/share after that)合理，建议使用。只适用美国居民（学生）。25，000美元以上level II 免费。有全部AH(4pm-8pm)，pre-market(6am-9:30am) 支持。 它的level II quotes有时候滞后，明显不如CyberTrader Pro。也有可做自动交易的C++ API（但我没用过它的API）。MBTrading有时候会搞错你的overnight positions（在我身上发生过两次，在这两次错误之后，我把大部分钱和交易活动转到了CyberTrader Pro）。
Scottrade: 交易费低($7/$7)，界面支持中文，也有AH，pre-market 支持，但不支持比较复杂的订单（比如Market-On-Close order需要打电话才能下单）。共同基金有些是免费，适合中长期的股民。 据说Scottrade的servers down得频繁。我现在用它做中长期投资账号。
RushTrade:直接交易，快，交易费($10/$10)合理，只适用美国居民（学生）。level 1 3/4 免费。有全部AH(4pm-8pm)，pre-market(7am-9:30am) 支持。 我从2005年起，已不用RushTrade。我感觉它不如MBTrading。
Ameritrade:交易费($10/$10)合理，我喜欢它的CommandCenter,速度比网上平台快: ss1000QQQ35 = 卖空1000股QQQ。十万美元以上level II 免费。有部分AH（4：15pm-6:30pm)，pre-market(8am-9:15am) 支持。用 Ameritrade转钱比较方便。自从它跟TD Waterhouse合并之后，我再也没有用过它（我比较讨厌TD Waterhouse）。
Fidelity:交易费贵，建议别使用，除非你有钱或者交易足够频繁成为金牌会员。Fidelity给Active Traders写的软件很差劲，我在使用时，经常犯错误，有时候会把买卖搞反，有时候会把定价搞错。原因在于Fidelity自动把bid价跟卖连接, ask价跟买连起来。我只要按bid价，Fidelity会把我的买单改成卖单，我用此软件犯了无数次昂贵的错误，现在彻底放弃，把我原来的退休账号(我原来是金牌会员）转到了InteractiveBrokers. Fidelity对金牌会员的要求很苛刻，你或者得拥有百万资金，或者在过去的12个月内做过120个交易（等于先交1000多美元才能成为金牌会员），而这所谓的金牌会员待遇跟Scottrade的普通会员差不多。你如果使用它的direct access trading，你的佣金在1000股之外也是按股数计算的。Fidelity最好的功能是它的Profit & Loss report, 这报告写得很好，像个真正的Profit & Loss report。当然，它的customer service非常好（其实就是跟Scottrade一样好）。
网友(aaaa)对E*TRADE的补充：
E*TRADE: 如果帐户有五万以上(可以是多个帐户合起来,包括IRA),每个季度交易30次以上就可以是POWER E*TRADE会员.成为这个会员,就可以用POWER E*TRADE PRO的交易平台,是DIRECT MARKET ACCESS,免费的实时数据(股票和期权),免费的LEVEL II,免费的CHARTING,免费的SCREENING,免费的分析师的研究报告,可以用隐藏自己的ORDER（注：IB, Fidelity, CyberTrader都提供这功能）和STOP,可以用很复杂的CONDITIONAL ORDER,交易速度很快(保证小于2秒).IRA也可以是所谓的MARGIN帐户,不过不能借钱炒股,但可以买卖期权.交易费用是股票$9.99,基本没有股数限制,期权是$0.75一个合约. 与IB相比而言,好处是数据是免费的,CUSTOMER SERVICE时间长,更容易打通,服务速度和态度也要好很多.还提供CHECKING和ONLINE BILL PAYMENT的服务.服务器很稳定,POWER E*TRADE几乎没有DOWN的时候,IB的服务器有时不稳定,上周五的下午就一直没办法连上,害得我有个股票没卖出去,幸亏今天卖也没亏. （大千原帖：http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=512145）
Free-Trade broker: Zecco（最低要求2000美元), 佣金免费，你得另外打电话要求Money Market Funds,否则你的现金利息率只有1%。Zecco只支持简单的订单，像Market-On-Close order, trailing stop就不支持。另外，你只能有一个免佣金的账号，其余的账号并不免佣金。
BankofAmerica（至少需要25000美元现金，股票不算在内），没用过，不好置评。
IRA accounts:
如果交易不频繁，我建议用MBTrading做IRA账号. MBTrading没有inactivity fee.你可以选择Plan A($0.01 per sharefor the first 500 shares, then just $0.005 per additional share) or Plan C ($4.95 per trade).
如果交易频繁, 我建议用IB (InteractiveBrokers)做IRA账号. 主要是IB的IRA可以用margin，佣金很低(每股$0.005), IB的margin IRA不可以借钱，也不可以空股票，但可以交易期货，指数和期权，也可以用未交割的钱去买别的股票（“IRA margin accounts may never borrow, but are afforded all the other benefits of a margin account such as the ability to day trade, and the ability to trade multiple currencies and multiple currency products.“--from InteractiveBrokers.com）。但如果每月交易费低于$30,你得每月付$10 inactivity fee。详细情况请看http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/accounts/iraClasses.php。
我是一个非常活跃的trader：交易费每月达3000美元已上, 从不炒OTC股，很少炒期权和指数。我用过CyberTrader, InteractiveBrokers, MBTrading, Scottrade, RushTrade, Ameritrade, Fidelity, TD Waterhouse（现已跟Ameritrade合并）, BrownCo（现在是E*Trade的一部份），Zecco.
CyberTrader Pro: 直接交易(direct access trading)，快。我现在的最爱，每股的交易费是0.006美元（2000股以内，2000股以外是0.003美元）。最适合活跃的炒股手。（每月买卖的股数低于40000股要另交费$249/月）。有全部AH(4pm-8pm)，pre-market(7am-9:30am) 支持。 公司的customer services很不错。CyberTrader Pro的servers极少down（半年里down过一小时）。
InteractiveBrokers: 直接交易，快，每股的交易费是0.005美元，价钱低，不仅可交易全世界的各种证卷，而且有可做自动交易的Java/C++ API。我很喜欢IB的Java API。InteractiveBrokers适用美国，加拿大和中国居民。公司的customer services和软件的用户界面不如CyberTrader Pro（据说是IB的电话接线员不懂行）。
MBTrading:直接交易，快，交易费($10/$10 或者$0.01/share (first 500 shares), $0.005/share after that)合理，建议使用。只适用美国居民（学生）。25，000美元以上level II 免费。有全部AH(4pm-8pm)，pre-market(6am-9:30am) 支持。 它的level II quotes有时候滞后，明显不如CyberTrader Pro。也有可做自动交易的C++ API（但我没用过它的API）。MBTrading有时候会搞错你的overnight positions（在我身上发生过两次，在这两次错误之后，我把大部分钱和交易活动转到了CyberTrader Pro）。
Scottrade: 交易费低($7/$7)，界面支持中文，也有AH，pre-market 支持，但不支持比较复杂的订单（比如Market-On-Close order需要打电话才能下单）。共同基金有些是免费，适合中长期的股民。 据说Scottrade的servers down得频繁。我现在用它做中长期投资账号。
RushTrade:直接交易，快，交易费($10/$10)合理，只适用美国居民（学生）。level 1 3/4 免费。有全部AH(4pm-8pm)，pre-market(7am-9:30am) 支持。 我从2005年起，已不用RushTrade。我感觉它不如MBTrading。
Ameritrade:交易费($10/$10)合理，我喜欢它的CommandCenter,速度比网上平台快: ss1000QQQ35 = 卖空1000股QQQ。十万美元以上level II 免费。有部分AH（4：15pm-6:30pm)，pre-market(8am-9:15am) 支持。用 Ameritrade转钱比较方便。自从它跟TD Waterhouse合并之后，我再也没有用过它（我比较讨厌TD Waterhouse）。
Fidelity:交易费贵，建议别使用，除非你有钱或者交易足够频繁成为金牌会员。Fidelity给Active Traders写的软件很差劲，我在使用时，经常犯错误，有时候会把买卖搞反，有时候会把定价搞错。原因在于Fidelity自动把bid价跟卖连接, ask价跟买连起来。我只要按bid价，Fidelity会把我的买单改成卖单，我用此软件犯了无数次昂贵的错误，现在彻底放弃，把我原来的退休账号(我原来是金牌会员）转到了InteractiveBrokers. Fidelity对金牌会员的要求很苛刻，你或者得拥有百万资金，或者在过去的12个月内做过120个交易（等于先交1000多美元才能成为金牌会员），而这所谓的金牌会员待遇跟Scottrade的普通会员差不多。你如果使用它的direct access trading，你的佣金在1000股之外也是按股数计算的。Fidelity最好的功能是它的Profit & Loss report, 这报告写得很好，像个真正的Profit & Loss report。当然，它的customer service非常好（其实就是跟Scottrade一样好）。
网友(aaaa)对E*TRADE的补充：
E*TRADE: 如果帐户有五万以上(可以是多个帐户合起来,包括IRA),每个季度交易30次以上就可以是POWER E*TRADE会员.成为这个会员,就可以用POWER E*TRADE PRO的交易平台,是DIRECT MARKET ACCESS,免费的实时数据(股票和期权),免费的LEVEL II,免费的CHARTING,免费的SCREENING,免费的分析师的研究报告,可以用隐藏自己的ORDER（注：IB, Fidelity, CyberTrader都提供这功能）和STOP,可以用很复杂的CONDITIONAL ORDER,交易速度很快(保证小于2秒).IRA也可以是所谓的MARGIN帐户,不过不能借钱炒股,但可以买卖期权.交易费用是股票$9.99,基本没有股数限制,期权是$0.75一个合约. 与IB相比而言,好处是数据是免费的,CUSTOMER SERVICE时间长,更容易打通,服务速度和态度也要好很多.还提供CHECKING和ONLINE BILL PAYMENT的服务.服务器很稳定,POWER E*TRADE几乎没有DOWN的时候,IB的服务器有时不稳定,上周五的下午就一直没办法连上,害得我有个股票没卖出去,幸亏今天卖也没亏. （大千原帖：http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=512145）
Free-Trade broker: Zecco（最低要求2000美元), 佣金免费，你得另外打电话要求Money Market Funds,否则你的现金利息率只有1%。Zecco只支持简单的订单，像Market-On-Close order, trailing stop就不支持。另外，你只能有一个免佣金的账号，其余的账号并不免佣金。
BankofAmerica（至少需要25000美元现金，股票不算在内），没用过，不好置评。
IRA accounts:
如果交易不频繁，我建议用MBTrading做IRA账号. MBTrading没有inactivity fee.你可以选择Plan A($0.01 per sharefor the first 500 shares, then just $0.005 per additional share) or Plan C ($4.95 per trade).
如果交易频繁, 我建议用IB (InteractiveBrokers)做IRA账号. 主要是IB的IRA可以用margin，佣金很低(每股$0.005), IB的margin IRA不可以借钱，也不可以空股票，但可以交易期货，指数和期权，也可以用未交割的钱去买别的股票（“IRA margin accounts may never borrow, but are afforded all the other benefits of a margin account such as the ability to day trade, and the ability to trade multiple currencies and multiple currency products.“--from InteractiveBrokers.com）。但如果每月交易费低于$30,你得每月付$10 inactivity fee。详细情况请看http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/accounts/iraClasses.php。
Time Frame in a Day (ZZ)
There are 3 periods that is best to trade in a day. One could plot his move based on the anticipated move of the market.
8:30-9:00, This is emotion trading. a lot of swings. if you have a good trade overnight, it will brighten your day. if you have a wrong trade, this is also the good time to close your position. just do not panic, wait for the first wave of selling/buying subbued and then make your move.
11:00-1:00. This is when momentum players coming. if you have a stock going high, very likely it will even higher. so, if you are a day trader, this is the time to close and your are done for the day.
2:30-3:00. This is when index funds/ETFs to coming to adjust their position to reflect the market and also a good indication for tomorrow. In a normal market condition, you can short/long a momentum stock and be ready to take advantage of the emotion next day.
8:30-9:00, This is emotion trading. a lot of swings. if you have a good trade overnight, it will brighten your day. if you have a wrong trade, this is also the good time to close your position. just do not panic, wait for the first wave of selling/buying subbued and then make your move.
11:00-1:00. This is when momentum players coming. if you have a stock going high, very likely it will even higher. so, if you are a day trader, this is the time to close and your are done for the day.
2:30-3:00. This is when index funds/ETFs to coming to adjust their position to reflect the market and also a good indication for tomorrow. In a normal market condition, you can short/long a momentum stock and be ready to take advantage of the emotion next day.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Bull Flag
http://www.thestockbandit.com/Bull-flag.htm
The bull flag pattern is found within an uptrend in a stock. This pattern is named for the resemblance of a flag on a pole. The bull flag is a continuation pattern which only slightly retraces the advance preceding it. The technical buy point is when price penetrates the upper trend line of the flag area, ideally on volume expansion.
Context: Found within an uptrend.
Appearance: The advance has solid volume and the upward price action is strong, which forms the vertical look of a flagpole. The resting period and slight retracement is narrow price action with a slight downward tilt or is horizontal (but no upward movement) with volume contracting during the flag portion of the pattern. The flag portion of the pattern has highs and lows which can be connected by small trend lines which are parallel, giving the flag portion the look of a small channel.
Breakout Expectation: The height of the flagpole may be added to the breakout area at the end of the flag to determine the expected advance. This is why the bull flag pattern is often found in the middle of stock advances.
The bull flag pattern is found within an uptrend in a stock. This pattern is named for the resemblance of a flag on a pole. The bull flag is a continuation pattern which only slightly retraces the advance preceding it. The technical buy point is when price penetrates the upper trend line of the flag area, ideally on volume expansion.
Context: Found within an uptrend.
Appearance: The advance has solid volume and the upward price action is strong, which forms the vertical look of a flagpole. The resting period and slight retracement is narrow price action with a slight downward tilt or is horizontal (but no upward movement) with volume contracting during the flag portion of the pattern. The flag portion of the pattern has highs and lows which can be connected by small trend lines which are parallel, giving the flag portion the look of a small channel.
Breakout Expectation: The height of the flagpole may be added to the breakout area at the end of the flag to determine the expected advance. This is why the bull flag pattern is often found in the middle of stock advances.
Bear Flag
http://www.thestockbandit.com/Bear-flag.htm
The bear flag pattern is found in a downtrending stock. This pattern is named for the resemblance of an inverted flag on a pole. The bear flag is a continuation pattern which only slightly retraces the decline preceding it. The technical sell point is when price penetrates the lower trend line of the flag area, ideally on volume expansion.
Context: Found within a downtrend.
Appearance: The decline has solid volume and consistent downward price action, which forms the vertical look of an inverted flagpole. The resting period and slight retracement is narrow price action with a slight upward tilt or is horizontal (but no downward movement) with volume contracting during the flag portion of the pattern. The flag portion of the pattern has highs and lows which can be connected by small trend lines which are parallel, giving the flag portion the look of a small channel.
Breakout Expectation: The height of the flagpole may be subtracted from the breakout area at the end of the flag to determine the expected decline which follows. This is why the bear flag pattern is often found in the middle of stock declines.
The bear flag pattern is found in a downtrending stock. This pattern is named for the resemblance of an inverted flag on a pole. The bear flag is a continuation pattern which only slightly retraces the decline preceding it. The technical sell point is when price penetrates the lower trend line of the flag area, ideally on volume expansion.
Context: Found within a downtrend.
Appearance: The decline has solid volume and consistent downward price action, which forms the vertical look of an inverted flagpole. The resting period and slight retracement is narrow price action with a slight upward tilt or is horizontal (but no downward movement) with volume contracting during the flag portion of the pattern. The flag portion of the pattern has highs and lows which can be connected by small trend lines which are parallel, giving the flag portion the look of a small channel.
Breakout Expectation: The height of the flagpole may be subtracted from the breakout area at the end of the flag to determine the expected decline which follows. This is why the bear flag pattern is often found in the middle of stock declines.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Screening The Market
Today, I found a good book to learn how to screen the market and how to FA a compnay. Here is the detail of the book:
SCREENING THE MARKET
A Four-Step Method to Find, Analyze, Buy, and Sell Stocks
By Marc H. Gerstein (Director of Investment Research, Multex)
Published by Wiley Trading
You can find it here:
http://www.amazon.com/Screening-Market-Marc-H-Gerstein/dp/0471215597
The author also wrote another similar book:
http://www.amazon.com/Value-Connection-Four-Step-Screening-Companies/dp/0471323640
I have the e-copy of the second one, :)
SCREENING THE MARKET
A Four-Step Method to Find, Analyze, Buy, and Sell Stocks
By Marc H. Gerstein (Director of Investment Research, Multex)
Published by Wiley Trading
You can find it here:
http://www.amazon.com/Screening-Market-Marc-H-Gerstein/dp/0471215597
The author also wrote another similar book:
http://www.amazon.com/Value-Connection-Four-Step-Screening-Companies/dp/0471323640
I have the e-copy of the second one, :)
Sunday, September 2, 2007
Learning Option
Today, I went to Borders at North Michigan Ave and looked at several books about option trading. Finnally I bought one book "Getting Started in Options" for $19.95. It is very good because it has a lot of Tips and Examples. It is very good for a option trading beginners like me.
I also found a website, http://www.888options.com/strategy/default.jsp, which introduces several useful option trading strategies. Today, I learned one strategy, naming Collar, which can be established by holding shares of an underlying stock, buying (long) a protective put and selling (write) a covered call on that stock. Both put and call should be OTM (out of money).
I also found a website, http://www.888options.com/strategy/default.jsp, which introduces several useful option trading strategies. Today, I learned one strategy, naming Collar, which can be established by holding shares of an underlying stock, buying (long) a protective put and selling (write) a covered call on that stock. Both put and call should be OTM (out of money).
Saturday, September 1, 2007
Welcome to AFX's blog
I am AFX from 9# (you know what it is, right?)
Just start this blog to record my interests and thoughts.
Just start this blog to record my interests and thoughts.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
